Falling Inflation, Rising Hardship: Nigerians Question ‘Beautiful’ Economic Statistics

Despite a steady decline in Nigeria’s inflation rate for the fourth month in a row, the much-anticipated relief for citizens and businesses remains elusive. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that inflation fell to 21.88 percent in July, down from 22.22 percent in June, continuing a downward trend since April 2025 when it stood at 23.7 percent. This improvement has been celebrated by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration as proof of progress under his two-year leadership. Similarly, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product expanded to N372.8 trillion in 2024, following a rebase in July 2025. Inflation was also rebased earlier in January, which caused the official year-on-year headline inflation to fall sharply to 24.48 percent from 34.80 percent. It was on this basis that former Finance Minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, during her recent visit to President Tinubu, suggested the economy is beginning to stabilize.

Yet, away from the official figures, the economic reality for millions of Nigerians paints a different picture. Food, fuel, transportation, energy and interest rates remain painfully high. A 50kg bag of local rice costs between N69,000 and N75,000 in Abuja and Lagos. Petrol sells for about N865 to N925 per litre, cooking gas ranges between N1,000 and N1,200 per kilogram and electricity tariffs for Band A customers stand at N209.50 to N231.79 per kilowatt-hour. With transportation costs by road and air rising steeply, the so-called relief from declining inflation remains invisible in the daily lives of Nigerians.

Economic experts are also divided over the latest inflation report. Mazi Okechukwu Unegbu, former president of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, dismissed the NBS figures, insisting they fail to capture the suffering of households and businesses. He described the data as “a beautiful report” that ignores the reality of hunger, urging the government to revisit its interest rate and agricultural policies instead of celebrating statistics. Gbolade Idakolo, CEO of SD & D Capital Management, acknowledged that core inflation is easing due to the Central Bank’s monetary stance but stressed that food inflation is rising because of insecurity in farmlands, exchange rate instability, and high logistics costs. He warned that imported food prices remain steep while energy and transportation continue to push inflationary pressure.

Professor Segun Ajibola, a respected economist and former CIBN president, offered a more technical explanation. He noted that headline inflation is based on a basket of consumables, which does not fully reflect market realities across the country. Variations in prices from location to location and gaps in the NBS survey process, he said, mean that the official rate is only an estimate that may differ from lived experiences.

For now, while the government celebrates statistical progress, ordinary Nigerians continue to grapple with the harsh realities of rising food prices, unaffordable energy, and shrinking purchasing power, an economy of “beautiful numbers” but increasingly hungry citizens.