Presidency Challenges World Bank’s 139 Million Poverty Estimate, Calls It “Unrealistic”

The Presidency has rejected the World Bank’s recent estimate that 139 million Nigerians live in poverty, calling the figure “unrealistic” and inconsistent with the country’s economic realities.

In a post on his official X handle, President Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Media and Public Communication, Sunday Dare, said the figure must be “properly contextualised” under global poverty measurement models. He explained that the World Bank derived the estimate from the global poverty line of $2.15 per person per day, benchmarked in 2017 using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). According to the statement, when converted to nominal terms, that benchmark equates to roughly N100,000 per month—well above Nigeria’s current minimum wage of N70,000.

Dare argued that interpreting the World Bank’s number as a direct count of poor Nigerians would be misleading because it is a modelled global estimate, not a live snapshot of 2025 living conditions. He said PPP-based assessments rely on historical consumption surveys, which often exclude the vast informal and subsistence economies that sustain millions of households.

He stressed that the more critical measure is the trend, claiming that Nigeria’s economy is now on a path of recovery and inclusive reform. He cited government initiatives such as expanded Conditional Cash Transfers reaching 15 million households, the Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme, strengthened social investment programmes (N-Power, GEEP microloans, Home-Grown School Feeding), and food security measures as evidence of efforts to cushion citizens.

The Presidency also defended structural reforms such as fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and fiscal reallocation to productive sectors, calling them tough but necessary decisions to tackle root causes of poverty. The statement noted that even the World Bank has acknowledged Nigeria’s macroeconomic stabilisation and growth momentum under these reforms.

However, the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, at the launch of its October 2025 Nigeria Development Update, reaffirmed the estimate of 139 million Nigerians in poverty. He warned that despite reform gains, the transformation must translate into tangible improvements in citizens’ welfare or risk reversal of progress.

Verghis lauded Nigeria’s bold structural reforms as foundational, observing that growth, rising revenue, improving debt metrics, stabilising foreign exchange, and moderating inflation are signs of a stabilisation phase. Yet he cautioned that many households still struggle under eroded purchasing power, and that poverty began rising in 2019 due to policy missteps and global shocks.

Opposition figures and economists responded strongly. Tony Akeni, Labour Party’s interim publicity secretary, said the figures reflect Nigeria’s grim reality, claiming that growth and inflation statistics have not benefited ordinary citizens. Ladipo Johnson of the New Nigeria People’s Party criticised the government’s borrowing and failure to cushion reforms. Timothy Osadolor from the PDP accused the Tinubu administration of deceiving Nigerians about its achievements, saying poverty is visible in everyday life, not just in data.

Okechukwu Unegbu, former President of the Chartered Institute of Bankers, cautioned against blindly accepting international estimates but acknowledged poverty is widespread. Teslim Shitta-Bey, Chief Economist at Proshare Nigeria, termed Tinubu’s reforms necessary but emphasized that they must be matched with policies that reach the poor. He projected GDP growth of 4.4 percent by year-end but urged improvements in power, education, and digital income opportunities.