Tinubu Consolidates Southern Grip as PDP Governors Defect Amid One-Party State Fears

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu appears to be tightening his political hold across Southern Nigeria as the wave of defections from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) intensifies ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The recent movement of governors and key political figures from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and other opposition blocs to the APC has sparked renewed fears of a drift toward a one-party state, prompting sharp reactions from opposition leaders.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi, described the defections as “acts of political desperation” and vowed that Nigerians would respond at the ballot box. Atiku warned that “a battle line has been drawn” between Nigerians and what he termed “the deepening hardship” under the Tinubu administration.

According to reports from senior APC insiders, more southern governors are expected to declare for the ruling party in the coming weeks. The political realignment gained momentum on Tuesday when Enugu State Governor Peter Mbah defected from the PDP to the APC, taking his State Executive Council members along. Within 24 hours, Bayelsa State Governor Douye Diri also resigned from the PDP, alongside the Speaker of the Bayelsa State House of Assembly, Abraham Ingobere and 21 lawmakers.

Although Diri has not publicly confirmed joining the APC, his exit fuels speculation that he will soon do so. His move comes days after the PDP Governors’ Forum Chairman, Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State, expressed concern over the growing number of defections.

Sources revealed that Governors Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers, Alex Otti of Abia, Caleb Mutfwang of Plateau, and Agbu Kefas of Taraba are in advanced discussions to join the APC. One senior party source said, “The APC is attracting them all. Talks are ongoing with several southern and northern governors, especially from the North Central and North East.”

Recent months have also seen high-profile defections by Akwa Ibom Governor Umo Eno, Delta Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, and the PDP’s 2023 vice-presidential candidate, Ifeanyi Okowa.

Currently, the APC governs 11 of the 17 southern states — including Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, Ondo, Edo, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Delta, Imo, Ebonyi, and Enugu. The Labour Party controls Abia, while the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) governs Anambra. The PDP retains Oyo, Rivers and Osun, while Bayelsa remains politically unsettled.

In the North, the APC dominates 13 of 19 states, while the PDP holds five Zamfara, Plateau, Taraba, Adamawa and Bauchi and the NNPP retains Kano.

Speaking in Abuja, Governor Bala Mohammed admitted that the defections had destabilised the PDP, though he said efforts were ongoing to preserve party unity ahead of its national convention in Ibadan on November 15–16.

Meanwhile, Federal Capital Territory Minister Nyesom Wike mocked his former PDP colleagues, saying their defection to the APC validated his earlier support for President Tinubu. Speaking during the flag-off of the Outer Southern Expressway project in Abuja, Wike said, “People who accused me of destabilising the PDP are now in the APC. So, if I was accused of working for the APC, they should thank me for paving the way.”

Wike praised Tinubu’s “decisive leadership” claiming that every state now has the financial capacity to meet obligations and embark on projects. He described the ongoing defections as “a positive shift towards purposeful leadership.”

Reacting to Diri’s defection, former Bayelsa Governor and Senator Seriake Dickson criticised the move, accusing defectors of “running away from problems they created.” He warned that Nigeria risked becoming a one-party state and reaffirmed his commitment to the PDP, saying, “I am where I have been. I don’t believe Nigeria should be a one-party state. Democracy cannot thrive without opposition.”

Atiku’s spokesperson, Paul Ibe, also condemned the defections, alleging that the APC was using state institutions to coerce opposition leaders. He said Nigerians, “long impoverished and disillusioned” would decide the nation’s fate in 2027.

Obi, on his part, dismissed claims that the APC could “capture” the South-East through defections, stating that democracy is about persuasion, not coercion. “The people will decide where to go, not governors or senators” he said.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) joined the chorus of criticism, accusing the APC of plotting to “turn Nigeria into a one-party state.” In a statement by its National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, the party said the defections of Mbah and Diri were acts of “betrayal” against citizens enduring economic hardship.

“The Tinubu administration has failed on security, economy, healthcare, and corruption,” the statement read. “The people can see and are waiting. 2027 will be a battle between Nigerians and the APC establishment.”

In Enugu, PDP members have vowed to rebuild their party despite Mbah’s exit. Former PDP Youth Leader Dr. Okey Ozoani urged members to “stay resilient” while others questioned the governor’s motives, accusing him of prioritising personal gain over governance.

Political analysts predict that the defections mark a decisive phase in the 2027 power game, one that could either solidify APC’s dominance or reignite opposition momentum ahead of the elections.