Political maneuvering ahead of 2027 continues across states, with high-profile consultations happening in Kwara, Ondo, and Ekiti as parties gear up for upcoming local and state-level elections.

APC Wave of Mass Legislative Defections

The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has consolidated power across both chambers of the National Assembly by absorbing floor-crossing lawmakers from opposition parties:

 National Assembly Shifts: Lawmakers from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) have defected in record numbers to the APC. The PDP’s parliamentary presence has experienced a severe decline from its initial strength at the inauguration of the 10th Assembly.  

 Driving Forces: Political analysts point to the pull of incumbency ahead of party primaries, ticket security, and internal administrative crises within opposition parties as primary drivers of these defections.  

Opposition Concentration Around the ADC

As traditional opposition frameworks split, several prominent political heavyweights have rallied around the African Democratic Congress (ADC):  

 Key Figures: Leaders such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Osun Governor Rauf Aregbesola, and former Senate President David Mark have stepped in to reposition and anchor the ADC platform.

 Opposition Strategy: The ADC coalition is actively mounting opposition campaigns against the administration’s economic policies—challenging fuel discount schemes and demanding full transparency from INEC regarding sensitive election contracts and ballot paper printing.

The “Third Force” Alignment & Emergence of Alternative Platforms

Third-force movements and regional leaders are navigating new political vehicles to retain influence in key battleground zones:

 Emergence of APM & NDC Structures: Alternative parties such as the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) (supported by figures like Seyi Makinde) and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) have put forward presidential and gubernatorial tickets across various states.  

 Grassroots Realignment: Networks associated with Peter Obi (Obidient Movement) and Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) are establishing tactical accords and regional alliances in the South-East and North-West to counter the major political machinery.

Impact of the 2026 Electoral Act & INEC Timelines

Recent legislative updates and judicial rulings have altered how political realignments operate:

 Supreme Court Rulings & Primary Deadlines: The Supreme Court restored specific party primary and membership poll regulations under the 2026 Electoral Act, forcing politicians seeking platform switches to complete defections within strict registration windows.  

 INEC Candidate Disagreements: With campaign season officially underway, party leaderships are engaged in frequent legal and administrative disputes with INEC over omissions or substitutions on published state and federal candidate lists.