Nigeria Poised to Overtake Algeria as Africa’s Third-Largest Economy by 2025 – NOA

The National Orientation Agency (NOA) has projected that Nigeria is on track to surpass Algeria and become Africa’s third-largest economy by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025. This forecast follows the rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP, which now reflects a 38 per cent increase and positions the country’s economy closer to the top tier on the continent.

According to NOA’s latest edition of its weekly publication, The Explainer, Nigeria’s GDP stood at N372.8 trillion in 2024. The updated figure comes after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revised its base year for GDP calculations to 2019, integrating key emerging sectors such as e-commerce, solid minerals, and informal economic activities that were previously excluded.

The agency, whose editorial board is chaired by the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, noted that in dollar terms, Nigeria’s economy grew from an earlier estimate of $187.8 billion to $243.7 billion in 2024. While Nigeria remained Africa’s fourth-largest economy that year, the gap with Algeria, whose GDP was recorded at $247.63 billion, significantly narrowed.

Based on current economic trends, NOA estimates that Nigeria could overtake Algeria as early as the first quarter of 2025. The report also highlighted that services remain the dominant contributor to the Nigerian economy, accounting for 53.09% of GDP, followed by agriculture at 25.83%, and industry at 21.08%.

Despite the challenges posed by currency depreciation, NOA emphasized that Nigeria’s economy grew by 81.8 per cent between 2019 and 2024. The agency described the rebasing exercise as a vital reflection of Nigeria’s economic diversification and the rising contribution of its informal sector, reinforcing the country’s potential to achieve stronger and more inclusive growth in the coming years